The ManicaPost
Richard Muponde
Zimpapers Elections Desk
IN ancient Rome, leaders at one time adopted a three-pronged governance system that was known as the triumvirate, comprising three powerful leaders, Julius Caesar, Pompey and Crassus.
It was the belief back then that this triple alliance guaranteed strength and success of leadership because what was bound by a trio would be hard to disentangle.
As the country heads towards the August 23 harmonised elections, there has been a triumvirate of reputable opinion surveys that have all made a similar prediction — that President Mnangagwa and Zanu PF will resoundingly win this year’s harmonised elections.
That three dissimilar surveys could all come up with a similar conclusion highlights how it is almost inevitable that the ruling party will romp to victory in this year’s polls.
Findings of a new Afrobarometer survey indicate that if presidential elections are to be held today, Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu PF will win.
The survey, whose results were released last week, and was conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, shows that Zanu PF will attract 35 percent of the vote compared to the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change’s 27 percent.
In January this year, an American think tank, Fitch Solutions made a similar prediction that President Mnangagwa will win with a majority vote because of his economic policies which have reduced poverty in the country.
Fitch Solutions, is a leading provider of credit intelligence and a source of up-to-date socio-economic and political data used by the world’s leading financial institutions, multinational companies and government agencies, as well as consulting firms in 118 countries.
In March, another survey conducted by the Pan African Forum Limited also predicted that President Mnangagwa will win the elections.
The survey showed that President Mnangagwa prides of 75 percent popularity ahead of Mr Chamisa‘s 19 percent.
On party choices, the study showed that 69 percent support Zanu-PF while 27 percent are ardent Citizens Coalition for Change supporters.
No serious individual can ignore this triumvirate of predictions, which all give compelling reasons for a Zanu PF victory.
All the three surveys are based on highly statistical and scientific data.
In an interview political analyst and Global Economics2020 Consultancy Group, Mr Paurosi Naboth Dzivaguru said President Mnangagwa is ahead of all candidates in this year’s elections because he has managed to unify and lead his party with distinction.
“He presided over successful primary elections where the majority of members were left satisfied with the outcome. So the moral is high in his camp compared to the opposition whose morale is punctuated with internecine discontentment and disgruntlements.
“So President Mnangagwa is going to the elections as a general with a highly motivated army raring to win the plebiscite. This differs completely with the opposition, which is going to elections jaded by internal squabbles emanating from its murky internal politics and chaotic nomination process. The opposition is like the army going to war without a general,” Mr Dzivaguru said.
On the economic front, Mr Dzivaguru said President Mnangagwa has abandoned the politics of rhetoric by focusing on practical and tangible developmental issues.
“He has proved in a short while to be an economic reformist who has easily charmed any development-minded people. That has attracted both domestic and international investors.”
Mr Dzivaguru said while the opposition thought that recent activities to sabotage the economy through unjustified prices increases would harm Zanu PF, this has not been the case, as the party’s supporters do not blame President Mnangagwa, but understand that there are other forces that are out to tarnish progress made by the Second Republic.
“Economic sanctions and sabotage have both agitated the nation to coalesce around President Mnangagwa as people feel that there’s an invisible hand manipulating the mood of the people. Economic warfare has a double-sword effect. It may agitate the people against the Government or embolden people to rally behind their leaders. In the context of Zimbabwe, people are supporting their Government in fighting the invisible hand.”
Veteran journalist, Mr Methuseli Moyo said scientific surveys can provide dependable pointers to outcomes of elections and in that regard, it is logical to conclude that all the three surveys were spot on.
“Even without the surveys, it looks like Zanu PF will prevail over CCC for a number of reasons. Firstly, Zanu PF appears solid, energised and resourced. On the other hand, CCC seems to be disjointed and running on a thin budget. The Zanu PF Government has pushed through a number of projects across the country, and that might work in their favour.
“On the other hand, the opposition’s performance in urban centres it controls has not been convincing. All factors considered, it is clear Zanu PF will win,” Mr Moyo said. @muponderichard
