The ManicaPost
Samuel Kadungure
Senior Reporter
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has released its seasonal rainfall forecast for the 2023/24 season, which shows that much of the country is likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall between October 2023 and March 2024.
Normal to below normal means cumulative rainfall will most likely be within the long-term average range with a chance of going below this range.
Following the release of the forecast, experts in Manicaland said missing crucial planting dates can compromise yields.
They said farmers should use the seasonal rainfall outlook as a planning tool since weather and climate information is of great value to the agriculture sector, especially as the country works towards achieving Vision 2030.
Already, Government is playing a critical role in ensuring that farmers get inputs early so that they do not miss out on the first rains.
Government is also ensuring that all input suppliers are sensitive to the farmers’ natural ecological zones.
Pfumvudza was formulated to enhance agricultural productivity in communal rain-fed areas by focusing on integrated farming, moisture conservation, soil health management and resource conservation.
“Much of the country is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for the period October 2023 to March 2024. The climate scientists took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence the climate over Zimbabwe, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is currently in an El Niño phase. The ENSO is projected to remain in an El Niño phase during the forecast period and there is also an increased chance of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) by the end of March 2024,” reads the seasonal forecast.
Deputy Director for Agricultural Advisory and Rural Development Services (Manicaland), Mr Nomatter Manunure said Manicaland is targeting to put at least 265 000 hectares under maize, with a focus to improve productivity by at least 10 percent.
Mr Manunure said inputs will be distributed on time to allow farmers to plant with the first rains.
Agriculture expert, Professor Joseph Kamuzhanje said farmers should not be surprised by the poor rainfall forecast for the 2023/24 season since it has become a trend that after a good season, the following two or more seasons will be bad.
“The rainfall projections for the 2023/24 agricultural season are common in Zimbabwe’s history. It has become normal that after a very good rainfall season, there will be one or two bad seasons. This means that by now, farmers should be used to this cycle.
“Farmers should do a number of things to mitigate this situation – first, they should target planting with the very first rains. This could be a risk if then there is a long period of dryness, but missing out on this may be catastrophic. It is also important for farmers to be continuously talking to the agriculture extension staff so that they get the necessary and relevant advise,” he said.
Professor Kamuzhanje also advised farmers to use short season varieties.
“This is important to maximise on the moisture content and make sure that the crops benefit from the little rains that will be received.
“Farmers should also go for traditional grains which are resilient and can be sustained by reduced levels of rain. Government intends to launch a Grain Swap programme, which will allow farmers to exchange various types of grain, so they should not be necessarily pressured to grow maize, especially with the expected reduced levels of rainfall,’ he said.
Professor Kamuzhanje said farmers should religiously adopt all principles of Pfumvudza since experience has shown that when applied properly, conservation agriculture can be useful in mitigating the challenge of low rains.
“Farmers should focus on mulching to conserve water. This should be supplemented by other water-harvesting technologies. They should also pay special attention to livestock diseases since ticks thrive when there is a lot of rain,” he said.
